By: Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lawrence
lawrence@kfyrtv.com
Click here for up-to-the-minute severe weather information
CLICK HERE FOR KEVIN LAWRENCE`S WINTER FORECAST
Friday, November 19th
Time to talk Turkey!!!
With temperatures so far running some 10° above normal this month and NO storms lately--Kevin`s Corner as been quiet which isn`t a bad thing. There just hasn`t been much to "write home about".
The weather through Thanksgiving can be found on the main weather page by reading the text forecast, or seeing our own 7-day forecast made by KFYR-TV meteorologists.
Monday, November 23 brings a slight chance for a rain or snow shower, otherwise nothing major in the week to come. Thanksgiving this year will be tranquil. Look for highs in the 40s with no travel or weather woes anywhere from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week. A weak storm will traverse the East Coast, but no massive blizzards.
I am still watching December very, very closely. At this point, I have mixed emotions with the long-term weather modeling. If we get a "blocky" look over Greenland and Canada, we might step down into a period of very cold weather. Even though I think December may average slightly above normal temperature-wise, I most certainly do NOT believe it`ll be as warm against averages like this month.
Here is something interesting...
November 1999 and 2000 were both very mild months. The following month turned out very different for both years. In 1999, December was unusually warm (+10°). In 2000, December turned very cold (-10°). I think this year we are somewhere in between, neither as warm as 1999, nor as cold as 2000. However, look for a period of severe cold becoming more of a likelihood. Despite that, the average monthly temperature should average slightly above normal. The key here is slightly--unlike this month which has been well above normal.
For those who love cold and especially snow, just remember winter hasn`t even begun! We will get our share of cold blasts and snow storms, but nowhere near as much snow as last year.
Sunday, November 15
Just a quick note~
Our warm November is positively not a sign of what winter will be like! The winter pattern is still evolving, and has not set up yet.
I do see changes on the horizon. Much colder weather may arrive sometime around Thanksgiving.
Keep checking back as I will have frequent updates as Thanksgiving approaches. At this time, it`s still a few days too early to speculate on winter storms traversing the country for the busiest travel day of the year.
Thursday, November 12
Long-term modeling is showing Arctic air arriving in North Dakota sometime around Thanksgiving give or take a few days. Some of that Alaskan cold might be on the move to the southeast.
However, I am only mentioning this because it`s the first time I`ve seen the models show Arctic air this month. I *do not* believe what the models say all the time, but let`s see how this trends.
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, November 11
Alaska is growing colder by the day, with temperatures there plunging well below normal. Fairbanks may have a long stretch of days remaining below zero.
As of right now, I see nothing "on the charts" that will pull that cold air mass into the lower 48. It is shifting from Asia into North America (Alaska), but no signs of it moving any farther southeast right now. Stay tuned, because this will eventually have to do something.
Friday, November 6
AMAZING NOVEMBER WEATHER!! Today will be the warmest day of the month without a doubt to me. I`ve been saying this for five days now.
Although temperatures will cool next week, I see no significant Arctic fronts coming anytime soon, through at least November 20th. Temperatures overall will average above normal, and I can proudly say my November forecast if anything, will be warmer than I thought. On October 20, I made a forecast for November to be 2-4° above normal. That may be an underestimate now.
Something to think about...
Canada will not have much in the way of Arctic air buildup through November 20th. All the VERY cold air is over the Asian continent right now. If that continues to build and grow, it will either do one of two things in North Dakota:
1. Get severely cold sometime in December or January or,
2. Cold air stays at bay and never makes it (or comes in little pieces).
January 2006 was a prime example. Temperatures here averaged a good 16° above normal and it never dropped below zero once in Bismarck that month. Do you remember?
Looking at longer-term patterns, things are a a little different this time around than 2006. Could a December 1983 or December 1989 haunt us? Let`s see what happens.
Who remembers December 1983 or 1989???
Tuesday, November 3
Gorgeous November weather continues (finally!) after our less than stellar October. However, it can`t last forever. Friday, I am forecasting what will almost certainly be the warmest day of the month--highs in the 50s and 60s. By next week, the pattern will shift to allow more seasonal chill, but I do not see temperatures averaging too much below normal.
The average high/low November 1st is 48/25 in Bismarck.
The average high/low November 30th is 28/13 in Bismarck.
This month is considered the "free fall" month on the temperature scale. Despite the cooler weather next week, I still think the entire month will average warmer than normal. So far, we`re running about 6° above normal this month (I know...it`s early!)
Sunday, November 1
First half of November is shaping up beautiful! Read my long-range forecast by clicking on the link above.
Friday, October 30
For my November and winter forecast, click on the link directly above.
Halloween forecast~
Spook-tacular! Look for a mostly cloudy sky, but temperatures should top out in the lower 50s most areas. At Trick-or-Treat time, look for temperatures to be cool--in the 30s but dry.
Looking at the first week of November, highs will top out in the 40s and 50s with no major storms on the horizon.
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